A significantly delayed accord will result in an Advent calendar of rail strikes that would destroy service. Topham Gwyn

There's hope for the RMT now that action has been announced for 18 months, but Aslef and the bosses are still at odds.

Beginning on Friday, British train users can expect yet another week of suffering due to the all-too-familiar disruption to services nationwide: the most recent round of a nationwide pay dispute that began with announcements of strikes eighteen months ago.

Image-Freepik

Timetables will be destroyed by a nine-day overtime prohibition for train drivers issued by Aslef, and as December approaches, all trains operated by various operators will come to a stop every day due to a series of rolling 24-hour strikes.

However, there's a chance that a Christmas ceasefire will be agreed upon before this industrial action calendar of advent opens. In an electronic vote, members of the RMT, the largest rail union, will decide on a proposal that, although not completely resolving the dispute, would ensure some job security, a salary increase, and an end to strikes until April.

Though hopes are high after a similar e-ballot at Network Rail last year saw a contract agreed, it is by no means clear that the proposal will be adopted when the poll closes on Thursday. Mick Lynch, the general secretary of the union, has not officially suggested which way members should vote.

With this half-deal, employees would receive a 5% pay increase retroactive to 2022, as well as an opportunity to reopen negotiations on labor reforms and additional pay increases. This is welcome news for passengers, whose last Christmas was marred by four weeks of sporadic strikes that were allegedly orchestrated by "Mick Grinch" and tabloid headline writers.

Aslef's Mick Whelan, whose smaller union has historically been slower to strike but has enough power to completely stop trains, will suddenly be the Mick in the firing line. Although informal discussions had been going on between the RMT and the Rail Delivery Group (RDG), which represents the operators, seven months have passed with no communication from the RDG to Aslef, according to Whelan.

Reversing course on ticket office closures seems to have given the RMT side momentum. The union has declared a partial win, and politicians and train operators have avoided a highly unpopular cost-cutting measure while allaying concerns about impending mass layoffs.

For drivers, the way forward is less clear. Aslef claims that the weird Schrödinger's cat of a contract is logically dead because they have rejected it, while the RDG and ministers believe that it is still on the table. For now, the two sides cannot agree on whether an offer even exists.

Under the proposal, the average salary during a four-day workweek would increase from £60,000 to £65,000; with overtime, some employees at the higher-paying long-distance enterprises may make six figures.

By the standards of many British workers, if not the standards of ministers or train bosses who criticize their earnings, train drivers are well paid and may be able to endure longer than others. The fact that the strike mandate was repeatedly and overwhelmingly approved suggests that many of them are still demanding more from what would be the first wage increase since 2019.

Aslef won't be expecting any movement from the ministers in charge of the Department of Transport or from businesses that have strict contracts with them. The government's current approach on other major problems, such as the Great British Railways transformation initiative, is leaving us with unclear futures. As a result, there is little chance that our views on drivers' remuneration will alter. Many union members think that only an election will change things at this point because strikes haven't had much of an impact and the impasse could annoy travelers for long time to come.